Strategic Compression as a Catalyst for Hegemonic Wars: Historical Cycles and Contemporary Implications -

Article

Open Access

by David Murrin¹
¹ Global Forecaster (United Kingdom)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.29202/up/17/6
Received: 07 September 2025 / Accepted: 20 December 2025 / Published: 30 December 2025

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Abstract

This article explores strategic compression as a structural catalyst for hegemonic wars. Expansionary momentum – driven by demographic growth, economic vitality, and national cohesion – inevitably collides with systemic resistance from established powers. The resulting compression narrows strategic options, fostering premature aggression at suboptimal moments. Historical case studies, including Revolutionary France, Germany in 1914, Nazi Germany in 1939, and Japan in 1941, illustrate this recurring pattern. The analysis situates compression within Kondratiev Waves and the 108–112-year hegemonic war cycle, highlighting their predictive value. Contemporary application highlights China’s strategic environment and Ukraine’s regional experience, demonstrating the universality of compression dynamics. The article concludes with policy recommendations for Ukraine and Eastern Europe, emphasising resilience, foresight, and cooperative strategies to mitigate systemic pressures.

Keywords: Strategic Compression, Hegemonic War Cycle, Kondratiev Wave, Geopolitics, Expansionary Momentum, China, Ukraine, Global Order

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Murrin, David (2025) Strategic Compression as a Catalyst for Hegemonic Wars: Historical Cycles and Contemporary Implications. Ukrainian Policymaker, Volume 17, 78-90. https://doi.org/10.29202/up/17/6

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