Ukraine at a Crossroads: Reflections on Security, Strategy, and Reconstruction

by Louis L. Voiron¹ and Valentin Yakushik^2
1 Ukraine Foundation, Geneva, Switzerland, and Washington DC, United States
² Ukrainian Institute of Politics (Kyiv, Ukraine)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.29202/up/17/10
Received: 17 September 2025 / Accepted: 2 December 2025 / Published: 30 December 2025

This interview with Louis L. Voiron, Vice Chair and President of the Ukraine Foundation, explores the strategic evolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the shifting dynamics of US–European engagement, and Ukraine’s long-term prospects for security, development, and integration. Drawing on two decades of experience in political consultancy, strategic forecasting, and international liaison, Louis Voiron reflects on the roots of the current geopolitical impasse, the role of reflexive control in shaping Western responses, and the emerging contours of a potential settlement. He also outlines opportunities for Ukraine’s defence industrial development, innovation ecosystem, and integration into global supply chains, while emphasising the importance of sustained Western cohesion. The interview concludes with an overview of the Ukraine Foundation’s ongoing initiatives and future priorities.

Keywords: Ukraine, US–Ukraine relations, European security, reflexive control, strategic forecasting, critical minerals, reconstruction

Baskaran, G., and Schwartz, M. (2025) Breaking Down the U.S.–Ukraine Minerals Deal. CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), 27 February 2025. Available online: https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-us-ukraine-minerals-deal

---

Bermingham, F. (2025) China tells EU it cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine war: sources. South China Morning Post, 4 July 2025. Available online: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say

---

Brzezinski, Z. (1997) The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books. Available online: https://archive.org/details/grandchessboarda00brze_0

---

Clemenceau, G. (1918) Speech to the French Chamber of Deputies, 8 March 1918. Oxford Essential Quotations. Oxford University Press. Available online: https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191843730.001.0001/q-oro-ed5-00003062

---

Odarchenko, K., and Kolisnyk, S. (2025) Why the US–Ukraine Minerals Deal Matters. CEPA, 16 May 2025. Available online: https://cepa.org/article/why-the-us-ukraine-minerals-deal-matters/

---

Orlova, A. (2024) FSB Fifth Service Head Dismissed Amid Controversy Over Flawed Ukraine Invasion Data. Kyiv Post, 23 June 2024. Available online: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34727

---

Pietrzak, P. (2023) The Brzezinski Doctrine and NATO’s Response to Russia’s Assault on Ukraine. Modern Diplomacy, 12 January 2023. Available online: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/01/12/the-brzezinski-doctrine-and-natos-response-to-russias-assault-on-ukraine/

---

Soldatov, A., and Borogan, I. (2022) From Bad Intel to Worse: Putin Turns on FSB Agency That Botched Russia’s Ukraine Prep. Meduza, 11 March 2022. Available online: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/11/from-bad-intel-to-worse

---

Subtelny, O. (2009) Ukraine: A History. 4th edition. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. Available online: https://archive.org/details/ukrainehistory0004subt

---

Ukraine Foundation. Inspiring Change, Driving Impact. (n.d.) Available online: https://ukrainefoundation.ch/ukr/

Voiron, Louis L., and Valentin Yakushik (2025) Ukraine at a Crossroads: Reflections on Security, Strategy, and Reconstruction. Ukrainian Policymaker, Volume 17: 134–142. https://doi.org/10.29202/up/17/10